Paper ledger

The strategies from the research blog, traded every night against real prices with pretend money. No real orders are placed. Each position is recorded at the close it was decided at and is never rewritten afterwards, so this is an honest forward record.

tracking since
2026-09-30
books
10
combined book, days
17
combined book, net
-0.91%
last run (UTC)
10-18 06:30

Books

booktracked sincedays net so farlatest dayrunning total
crypto swing momentumpassed every check
Long the 4 strongest of the 20 most-traded coins over the last 10 days, short the 4 weakest.
2026-10-0215-2.23%-1.51% 10-17
new coin shortspassed every check
Short each newly listed coin for its first month, hedged by owning bitcoin. Half size.
2026-10-0413+2.88%+3.64% 10-17
liquid ETF reversalcame close
On wild days, bet that big moves in the 20 most-traded US funds partly reverse.
2026-10-0115-0.32%+0.06% 10-16
VIX roll premiumcame close
Bet against a fund that jumps when people panic, stepping aside when fear rises.
2026-10-0115-3.26%-6.12% 10-16
funds on salepassed, upper bound
Each week, the 20 US closed-end funds trading furthest below their usual discount to what they own.
2026-10-088+0.62%+0.03% 10-16
funds on sale, pyramidpassed, upper bound
The same funds, but sized up in steps (to 2x at most) while the strategy is on a run, and to zero when it turns.
2026-10-088+0.16%+0.01% 10-16
stock pairsin the combined book
Pairs of US stocks that usually move together: buy the laggard, short the leader.
2026-09-3016-0.12%+0.05% 10-16
ETF pairsin the combined book
The same with pairs of US funds.
2026-09-3016+0.41%+0.05% 10-16
BTC high-vol reversalin the combined book
When bitcoin is very jumpy, bet that the day's move partly reverses.
2026-10-0215-0.72%+0.00% 10-17
BTC funding carryin the combined book
Collect the fees crypto traders pay to hold leveraged bitcoin bets.
2026-10-0215-0.48%-0.01% 10-17

Returns are after trading costs, as a share of each book's own capital, added up day by day. The four "combined book" strategies share one account; the others each run on their own. Crypto books are decided just after the 00:00 UTC close, the others after the US close. A handful of days says almost nothing: the first monthly report is due in early November.

Current positions

crypto swing momentum

decided at the close of 2026-10-17 · 4 long, 4 short
1000PEPE +12.5%NEAR +12.5%ONDO +12.5%WLD +12.5%BNB -12.5%DOGE -12.5%ETH -12.5%SOL -12.5%

new coin shorts

decided at the close of 2026-10-17 · 1 long, 1 short
BTC +25.0%CT -25.0%

liquid ETF reversal

decided at the close of 2026-10-16 · 4 long, 2 short
HYG +10.6%LQD +10.6%QQQ +10.6%XLV +10.6%TLT -10.6%XLU -10.6%

VIX roll premium

decided at the close of 2026-10-16 · 0 long, 1 short
VIXY -75.4%

funds on sale

decided at the close of 2026-10-16 · 20 long, 0 short
BOE +5.0%BTO +5.0%DSU +5.0%EIM +5.0%EMD +5.0%ETB +5.0%ETV +5.0%ETW +5.0%FFC +5.0%GDV +5.0%HPF +5.0%HPI +5.0%HPS +5.0%HTD +5.0%IGR +5.0%NAC +5.0%NBH +5.0%NRO +5.0%NUV +5.0%PHK +5.0%

funds on sale, pyramid

decided at the close of 2026-10-16 · 20 long, 0 short
BOE +1.2%BTO +1.2%DSU +1.2%EIM +1.2%EMD +1.2%ETB +1.2%ETV +1.2%ETW +1.2%FFC +1.2%GDV +1.2%HPF +1.2%HPI +1.2%HPS +1.2%HTD +1.2%IGR +1.2%NAC +1.2%NBH +1.2%NRO +1.2%NUV +1.2%PHK +1.2%

stock pairs

decided at the close of 2026-10-16 · 83 long, 96 short
DTE +3.2%CMS +3.0%NI +2.1%O +1.9%MAA +1.6%AON +1.5%CPT +1.3%UDR +1.3%CNP +1.2%YUM +1.1%LNT +0.8%VICI +0.7%ESS -0.9%PPL -0.9%RSG -1.0%AEE -1.1%EVRG -1.1%PNW -1.1%V -1.3%KO -1.3%PG -1.3%TRV -1.5%ED -1.6%DGX -2.0%… and 155 more

ETF pairs

decided at the close of 2026-10-16 · 8 long, 7 short
IEF +9.9%FXF +5.0%LQD +5.0%MUB +5.0%TIP +5.0%TLT +3.0%FXC +2.0%IYR +1.0%FXE -1.0%VNQ -1.0%UUP -2.0%FXB -3.0%AGG -5.9%HYG -8.9%SHY -13.9%

BTC high-vol reversal

decided at the close of 2026-10-17 · 0 long, 0 short
flat: no position

BTC funding carry

decided at the close of 2026-10-17 · 0 long, 0 short
flat: no position

Each chip is a position as a share of that book's capital: green is long (profits if the price rises), red is short (profits if it falls).

Daily results — most recent 60

daybookbefore costs costsafter costs
2026-10-17new coin shorts+3.637%0.000%+3.637%
2026-10-17crypto swing momentum-1.497%0.010%-1.507%
2026-10-17BTC high-vol reversal+0.000%0.000%+0.000%
2026-10-17BTC funding carry+0.000%0.012%-0.012%
2026-10-16stock pairs+0.047%0.001%+0.046%
2026-10-16new coin shorts-0.564%0.000%-0.564%
2026-10-16liquid ETF reversal+0.066%0.002%+0.063%
2026-10-16funds on sale, pyramid+0.008%0.000%+0.008%
2026-10-16funds on sale+0.034%0.000%+0.034%
2026-10-16crypto swing momentum-0.873%0.000%-0.873%
2026-10-16VIX roll premium-6.118%0.004%-6.122%
2026-10-16ETF pairs+0.051%0.000%+0.051%
2026-10-16BTC high-vol reversal+0.000%0.000%+0.000%
2026-10-16BTC funding carry-0.181%0.000%-0.181%
2026-10-15stock pairs+0.073%0.001%+0.072%
2026-10-15new coin shorts-0.158%0.000%-0.158%
2026-10-15liquid ETF reversal-0.385%0.003%-0.388%
2026-10-15funds on sale, pyramid+0.354%0.000%+0.354%
2026-10-15funds on sale+1.415%0.000%+1.415%
2026-10-15crypto swing momentum+1.520%0.030%+1.490%
2026-10-15VIX roll premium+0.593%0.004%+0.589%
2026-10-15ETF pairs+0.165%0.000%+0.165%
2026-10-15BTC high-vol reversal+0.000%0.000%+0.000%
2026-10-15BTC funding carry+0.163%0.012%+0.151%
2026-10-14stock pairs-0.180%0.000%-0.181%
2026-10-14new coin shorts-1.589%0.000%-1.589%
2026-10-14liquid ETF reversal-0.098%0.004%-0.102%
2026-10-14funds on sale, pyramid-0.373%0.000%-0.373%
2026-10-14funds on sale-1.490%0.000%-1.490%
2026-10-14crypto swing momentum-0.678%0.000%-0.678%
2026-10-14VIX roll premium-2.402%0.004%-2.406%
2026-10-14ETF pairs+0.075%0.000%+0.075%
2026-10-14BTC high-vol reversal+0.000%0.000%+0.000%
2026-10-14BTC funding carry+0.000%0.013%-0.013%
2026-10-13stock pairs-0.047%0.001%-0.048%
2026-10-13new coin shorts+0.484%0.000%+0.484%
2026-10-13liquid ETF reversal-0.013%0.002%-0.015%
2026-10-13funds on sale, pyramid+0.022%0.000%+0.022%
2026-10-13funds on sale+0.088%0.000%+0.088%
2026-10-13crypto swing momentum-1.079%0.030%-1.109%
2026-10-13VIX roll premium+0.094%0.004%+0.090%
2026-10-13ETF pairs+0.088%0.000%+0.088%
2026-10-13BTC high-vol reversal+0.000%0.000%+0.000%
2026-10-13BTC funding carry+0.410%0.000%+0.410%
2026-10-12stock pairs-0.080%0.000%-0.080%
2026-10-12new coin shorts-3.818%0.000%-3.818%
2026-10-12liquid ETF reversal-0.000%0.000%-0.000%
2026-10-12funds on sale, pyramid-0.043%0.000%-0.043%
2026-10-12funds on sale-0.172%0.000%-0.172%
2026-10-12crypto swing momentum-2.254%0.000%-2.254%
2026-10-12VIX roll premium+1.203%0.004%+1.199%
2026-10-12ETF pairs-0.017%0.000%-0.017%
2026-10-12BTC high-vol reversal+0.000%0.000%+0.000%
2026-10-12BTC funding carry-0.590%0.003%-0.593%
2026-10-11stock pairs+0.000%0.000%-0.000%
2026-10-11new coin shorts-0.660%0.000%-0.660%
2026-10-11liquid ETF reversal+0.000%0.000%-0.000%
2026-10-11funds on sale, pyramid+0.000%0.000%+0.000%
2026-10-11funds on sale+0.000%0.000%+0.000%
2026-10-11crypto swing momentum+1.425%0.040%+1.385%

Nightly runs — most recent 12

ran at (UTC)statusdetail
2026-10-18 06:30oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (0, 0, 0, 0, 0); P&L rows booked 0; weights day stock 2026-10-16/ETF 2026-10-16/BTC 2026-10-17/BTC 2026-10-17/liquid
2026-10-18 00:10oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (0, 0, 1, 0, 1752); P&L rows booked 4; weights day stock 2026-10-16/ETF 2026-10-16/BTC 2026-10-17/BTC 2026-10-17/liqu
2026-10-17 06:30oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (1, 1, 0, 1, 1); P&L rows booked 6; weights day stock 2026-10-16/ETF 2026-10-16/BTC 2026-10-16/BTC 2026-10-16/liquid
2026-10-17 00:10oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (0, 0, 1, 0, 1312); P&L rows booked 4; weights day stock 2026-10-15/ETF 2026-10-15/BTC 2026-10-16/BTC 2026-10-16/liqu
2026-10-16 06:30oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (1, 1, 0, 1, 1); P&L rows booked 6; weights day stock 2026-10-15/ETF 2026-10-15/BTC 2026-10-15/BTC 2026-10-15/liquid
2026-10-16 00:10oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (0, 0, 1, 0, 1347); P&L rows booked 4; weights day stock 2026-10-14/ETF 2026-10-14/BTC 2026-10-15/BTC 2026-10-15/liqu
2026-10-15 06:30oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (1, 1, 0, 1, 1); P&L rows booked 6; weights day stock 2026-10-14/ETF 2026-10-14/BTC 2026-10-14/BTC 2026-10-14/liquid
2026-10-15 00:10oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (0, 0, 1, 0, 1742); P&L rows booked 4; weights day stock 2026-10-13/ETF 2026-10-13/BTC 2026-10-14/BTC 2026-10-14/liqu
2026-10-14 06:30oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (1, 1, 0, 1, 1); P&L rows booked 6; weights day stock 2026-10-13/ETF 2026-10-13/BTC 2026-10-13/BTC 2026-10-13/liquid
2026-10-14 00:10oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (0, 0, 1, 0, 2115); P&L rows booked 4; weights day stock 2026-10-12/ETF 2026-10-12/BTC 2026-10-13/BTC 2026-10-13/liqu
2026-10-13 06:30oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (1, 1, 0, 1, 1); P&L rows booked 18; weights day stock 2026-10-12/ETF 2026-10-12/BTC 2026-10-12/BTC 2026-10-12/liquid
2026-10-13 00:10oknew sessions stk/etf/btc/vix (0, 0, 1, 0, 1795); P&L rows booked 4; weights day stock 2026-10-09/ETF 2026-10-09/BTC 2026-10-12/BTC 2026-10-12/liqu